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The only person that really knows what happened is Tony. Having watched the video many times, the only real reference we have to what is going on is the 45 car immediately in front of Stewart. If you look at the 45 car's position on the track relative to Stewart's, you will notice that Stewart is no higher up the track than the 45. As well, when you slow down the video, Stewart's car does not lurch upwards until AFTER making contact with Ward. As well, it doesn't look to me like Stewart was going much faster than the 45 car.
Absent any other evidence, I don't see how Stewart can be held at fault. Ward was a complete moron for getting in the middle of the track like that, and he's responsible for the consequences in doing so. Just my worthless opinion of course.
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