Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis
The sites I mentioned commonly talk about two things - safe withdrawal rate (SWR) and living expenses. Net worth needs to attain a level to sustain living expenses at the SWR.
Estimate your living expenses 10 years from now. Multiply by 25. This is one estimate of net worth required 10 years from now, for you to withdraw at an SWR of 4% per year.
Take the number you calculated above, and divide by your net worth today. Then take the 10th root of that number, or raise it to the 0.1 power. This is the required annual growth needed to achieve the target net worth in 10 years.
Today's net worth should include all assets minus all liabilities. This includes real estate at market value and mortgages.
A question to consider is: do you feel comfortable creating an investment portfolio that gives you the annual growth rate you need to retire in 10 years? If you choose to use an advisor, be aware they charge in the neighborhood of 1% of portfolio value, which increases the return the portfolio needs to earn, to meet your goals and pay for the advisor. I don't use an advisor and don't have plans to use one.
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I got 7.5, which I think is fairly easily attainable (if that's representing a percentage and not a multiplier). That's with a very moderate estimate of living expenses, as my only real vices are not particularly extravagant.
That being said, I'm more of the fatFIRE ambition, so if I could hit well beyond 7.5 (%? X?) growth rate I think 10 years is feasible to live a pretty decent, if not extravagant, life. We're talking modest house, BMW, golf, and a couple vacations per year. Also, I don't know that I'd fully retire anyway even if I could - I get bored easily. What I think it would mostly do is give me enough financial flexibility to explore more career options and entrepreneurship. Ideally, I could grow it enough to make a full time (or at least part time) job out of angel investing and mentoring / teaching / helping small businesses and such.