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      04-11-2019, 05:40 PM   #1
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Bloomberg: The Twilight of Combustion Comes for Germany's Empire of Engines

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2...erman-engines/
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      04-11-2019, 07:23 PM   #2
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Very interesting
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      04-12-2019, 08:06 AM   #3
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Interesting article. I think the price of batteries is the biggest hurdle. Right now the cheapest and best all around vehicle for the price conscious (most people have limited budget) is still the ICE.
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      04-13-2019, 01:36 AM   #4
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This is what happens when you get rid of manual transmissions. It caused the end of the internal combustion motor.
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      04-23-2019, 01:18 AM   #5
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The weight difference is very misleading. The battery packs in the Tesla weigh a considerable amount more than full tank of gasoline and the weight is always there. Whether you have 0% or 100% charge.

I'm fine with electric cars. I just hope someone will continue to make an ICE vehicle with a manual transmission for the weekends.
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      04-23-2019, 07:57 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by upsidedownfunnel View Post
The weight difference is very misleading. The battery packs in the Tesla weigh a considerable amount more than full tank of gasoline and the weight is always there. Whether you have 0% or 100% charge.

I'm fine with electric cars. I just hope someone will continue to make an ICE vehicle with a manual transmission for the weekends.
Agree except I figure I'll be fine as I can always daily the electric and buy a good used manual ICE for weekends.

Same reason I am fine with autonomous cars, most of my driving I don't really want to do and the process of getting to 100% only autonomous will put me at an age I will need it anyway.
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      04-23-2019, 01:46 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by upsidedownfunnel View Post
The weight difference is very misleading. The battery packs in the Tesla weigh a considerable amount more than full tank of gasoline and the weight is always there. Whether you have 0% or 100% charge.

I'm fine with electric cars. I just hope someone will continue to make an ICE vehicle with a manual transmission for the weekends.
Correct. Batteries are heavy and as David70 said, also the costliest part of electric vehicles. Tesla doesn't actually make money on sales of their cars but rather the credits they sell to other automakers. This will go away for them once the entire industry starts going electric.
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      04-23-2019, 02:35 PM   #8
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I just do not see it.

Autonomous i am extremely pessimistic about, it's pie in the sky stuff that has stalled at best, if not receded as it is becoming apparent we are just not there yet technology wise and the step to proper AV is a massive one we cannot fathom how to resolve.

Electric, whilst ready on paper, I just do not see being adopted unless people are forced to. having to charge every damned day is going to annoy people, even those with garages. But there's a good portion of the population without the ability to charge at will so I cannot see electric being mandated. This is even before you get into the range argument.

i don't see it, i don't think we are as smart as we think we are.
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      04-23-2019, 02:53 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
I just do not see it.

Autonomous i am extremely pessimistic about, it's pie in the sky stuff that has stalled at best, if not receded as it is becoming apparent we are just not there yet technology wise and the step to proper AV is a massive one we cannot fathom how to resolve.

Electric, whilst ready on paper, I just do not see being adopted unless people are forced to. having to charge every damned day is going to annoy people, even those with garages. But there's a good portion of the population without the ability to charge at will so I cannot see electric being mandated. This is even before you get into the range argument.

i don't see it, i don't think we are as smart as we think we are.
Agreed on autonomous cars. Level 4 and 5 are likely over a decade away due to some of the corner cases that are hard to address (Costco parking lot, construction zones, etc.) However, I think Level 3 will be ready in a couple of years, starting with freeways and eventually on city streets.

EV is not for everyone, but as a commuter, it's hard to beat. Instead of thinking of having to charge everyday, think of never have to visit a gas station. Charging the car is as easy as charging a phone, and you are always starting with full range at start of the day. Can't really do that with any ICE unless you are willing to go get gas everyday. I would think that range anxiety isn't a concern for most of the people, since most of the newer EV's are coming with 200+ miles ranges.

Weight is definitely still a concern, but a long range AWD Tesla Model 3 (310 miles range) is 4000lb. Heavy, but not significantly more than F30 x-drive or MB W205. With CG being lower, it does mitigate the penalty of extra weight a bit.

There is still a long way to go for mass adaptation of EV, but the switch is happening. And I don't think that's bad.

p.s. I also want an ICE manual car as weekend fun car. That's why I have a MKVII GTI and want to get a 981 GT4.
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      04-23-2019, 02:59 PM   #10
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The average American drives 29.2 miles per day according to the googles. That's less than half of a charge of most EV's for a five day work week.
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      04-23-2019, 03:06 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post

i don't see it, i don't think we are as smart as we think we are.
+1!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We are far less intelligent in every way we believe we are great. This is a disaster in motion. The first pedestrian death or major accident caused by a self driving car will put that first pioneer on the hot seat and perhaps bankrupt as there will be no mercy nor should there be for the injured.

The only way driverless cars can work would be for the entire highway and local roadway infrastructure were rebuilt as ‘Smart’, which is not practical, but then it gets worse as you’d then need to make the system hack proof which is not likely possible otherwise someone can hack the network and cause mass destruction. Bottom line this aint happening any time for the forseeable future.
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      04-23-2019, 03:10 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by phantomF80 View Post
EV is not for everyone, but as a commuter, it's hard to beat. Instead of thinking of having to charge everyday, think of never have to visit a gas station.
To me it's easier to fill gas once a week than it is to plug in the car every friggin day. if you do not have a garage or more cars than garage space, what i'm running a fucking extension cored out every day, and every morning rolling it back up.

Just a pain in the arse.
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      04-23-2019, 03:16 PM   #13
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Quote:
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The average American drives 29.2 miles per day according to the googles. That's less than half of a charge of most EV's for a five day work week.
There's no denying that EVs are super economical for the average consumer. Cheap to charge, only need to be plugged on a couple times a week, no wasting time/money on gas, no emissions when sitting in traffic. Truly perfect for commuting.

But the emotional side of me has a bias against them.
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      04-23-2019, 03:22 PM   #14
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The average American drives 29.2 miles per day according to the googles. That's less than half of a charge of most EV's for a five day work week.
There's no denying that EVs are super economical for the average consumer. Cheap to charge, only need to be plugged on a couple times a week, no wasting time/money on gas, no emissions when sitting in traffic. Truly perfect for commuting.

But the emotional side of me has a bias against them.
I'd feel worse about it if engines didn't all have flat torque curves and give little reward to revving them high. There are exceptions, of course, but many modern cars don't drive that differently than EV's anyway.

I still struggle with the whole environmental footprint, from mining of heavy metals, to largely Chinese production, to shipping here and then the impact from charging. We have relatively clean power here, but it's still not as easy to grasp the whole picture as an ICE vehicle.
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      04-23-2019, 03:53 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
I just do not see it.

Autonomous i am extremely pessimistic about, it's pie in the sky stuff that has stalled at best, if not receded as it is becoming apparent we are just not there yet technology wise and the step to proper AV is a massive one we cannot fathom how to resolve.

Electric, whilst ready on paper, I just do not see being adopted unless people are forced to. having to charge every damned day is going to annoy people, even those with garages. But there's a good portion of the population without the ability to charge at will so I cannot see electric being mandated. This is even before you get into the range argument.

i don't see it, i don't think we are as smart as we think we are.
I think the only problem is charging infrastructure and charging rates. If we can accomplish 50% charges in less than 30 minutes at charging stations, this could work. First, we wouldn't need to zone out gas stations which require a lot of special permits for underground tanks. Convenience stores and malls could simply make charging stations with high voltage power hookups so you could charge up your car while you shop. So we'd theoretically be able to have many more charging stations than gas stations so a little extra time charging wouldn't be a big deal.

IMO, until we do get proper charging infrastructure and standardization, PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) are what make the most sense for people who want an EV. These usually have an EV only range of about 50 miles which is sufficient for the vast majority of people's work commutes. But they also have a parallel engine that will give them a 300+ mile range extension. This gives them the ability to use it as an EV 90% of the time and still go on long road trips when needed.

Autonomous vehicles will come, I think. We're not going to get there as quickly as some people think.
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      04-23-2019, 04:06 PM   #16
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I think the only problem is charging infrastructure and charging rates. If we can accomplish 50% charges in less than 30 minutes at charging stations, this could work.
Nope, absolutely 100% has to be under 10 minutes. until then this remains a niche product unless mandated. They're too expensive and too much of a PITA to keep the tank full and you have to keep the tank full.
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      04-23-2019, 04:08 PM   #17
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The tittle "The Twilight of Combustion" is a little bit premature. We will have to rely on ICE for a long time.
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      04-23-2019, 04:18 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by upsidedownfunnel View Post
I think the only problem is charging infrastructure and charging rates. If we can accomplish 50% charges in less than 30 minutes at charging stations, this could work.
Nope, absolutely 100% has to be under 10 minutes. until then this remains a niche product unless mandated. They're too expensive and too much of a PITA to keep the tank full and you have to keep the tank full.
Why? If the average driver is driving 30 miles a day, why would they need to keep the tank full? You're basing your assumptions solely on your non standard needs.

And if we're being fair about this comparison, my wife prefers not to fill up her car. So I get to wait for the seat to move, drive it to a gas station, fill it up, park it again and wait for the seat to move back. Sure seems easier to just walk out to the garage, plug it in, burp and keep drinking beer.

Right now I'd guess less than 0.01% of this forum owns a gas station. But I'd bet 90% or more of us have access to a garage with the potential for 220v.
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      04-23-2019, 04:22 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by phantomF80 View Post
EV is not for everyone, but as a commuter, it's hard to beat. Instead of thinking of having to charge everyday, think of never have to visit a gas station.
To me it's easier to fill gas once a week than it is to plug in the car every friggin day. if you do not have a garage or more cars than garage space, what i'm running a fucking extension cored out every day, and every morning rolling it back up.

Just a pain in the arse.
How is pulling a car into a garage and plugging it in any different than backing six cars out of the way to get one out of the garage to go get gas? You create situations that don't exist and then try to field unequal scenarios.

Just buy a coal powered generator and plug that into your car with a foot long dongle.
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      04-23-2019, 04:22 PM   #20
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You need to top it up because if you break your pattern and need t go elsewhere you run the risk of falling short and having to find a charge point.

Not saying it's not for anyone but people have spoken, too expensive and too inconvenient.
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      04-23-2019, 04:25 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Red Bread View Post
How is pulling a car into a garage and plugging it in any different than backing six cars out of the way to get one out of the garage to go get gas? You create situations that don't exist and then try to field unequal scenarios.

Just buy a coal powered generator and plug that into your car.
Huh????

Not everyone has a garage, in fact the vast majority of the population don't. So you're asking people to run an extension cord every time they get home, plug the car in then unplug it and roll up the cord every morning.

Condo dwellers will need a dedicated plug at every parking bay, good luck with that.

Screw that, i'll just fill up once a week.
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      04-23-2019, 05:19 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
Nope, absolutely 100% has to be under 10 minutes. until then this remains a niche product unless mandated. They're too expensive and too much of a PITA to keep the tank full and you have to keep the tank full.
You're only thinking of replacing gas stations 1:1 with "charging" stations. We could have a ton more charging stations everywhere we go. Not just dedicated gas stations. Think about just stopping by a restaurant to get some take out or at a mall.

This would not be a complete solution, but it would work while we transition to a post-ICE world. Eventually we might get supercapacitors or new battery chemistries that can charge 100% in 5 minutes. But we don't have to wait until we get there. We can slowly adopt EVs since many people are fine with charging/topping off at home or work or at the mall. It doesn't have to be all or nothing. I suspect most multi-car families could get by with one EV and one PHEV vehicle for the near future.
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