[Gator328i]

I'm not sure if people will be able to read full article since WSJ.com is subscriber-based but there was a great article in yesterday's edition about the demise of manual transmissions in favor of the new clutch-less versions.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...Tabs%3Darticle

I found it interesting that fewer than 10% of cars sold in the US last year were manuals. I would imagine out of those that were manuals the vast majority would be BMW and Honda and maybe Nissan. Other than the pony cars, econoboxes and some trucks, I can't think of anything coming out of the Big-Three that would be equipped with a manual.

I'm probably one of the only people on the planet that prefers an automatic to a manual, though I can drive one. I have driven a couple of cars with paddle shifters and find those to be a nice blend between the control of a manual and the ease of an automatic. It'll be interesting to see how much longer BMW continues to equip its vehicles with the standard manual transmission or if it, too, will succomb to the forces of technology and do away with the clutch pedal.

[hmmcolor]

Considering BMW only has around a 2% market share in the US, they're probably contributing very little to that 10%.

[Anonymosity]

Originally Posted by Gator328i

I found it interesting that fewer than 10% of cars sold in the US last year were manuals.

...

I'm probably one of the only people on the planet that prefers an automatic to a manual, though I can drive one.

I'd say not

[BTM]

in before shitstorm

[Kerosene Hat]

Did the journal article mention that purchase reasons for manuals differ, including:

1) economics (manual is cheaper than auto, at least it used to be in all cases, hence "standard" transmission type) and

2) driver preference

If clutchless manuals become more cost effective than 3 pedal flavors, I can see (1) going away, but (2) is a separate beast IMO.

[reaper335]

Originally Posted by Kerosene Hat

Did the journal article mention that purchase reasons for manuals differ, including:

1) economics (manual is cheaper than auto, at least it used to be in all cases, hence "standard" transmission type) and

2) driver preference

If clutchless manuals become more cost effective than 3 pedal flavors, I can see (1) going away, but (2) is a separate beast IMO.

THIS

[Gator328i]

Originally Posted by Kerosene Hat

Did the journal article mention that purchase reasons for manuals differ, including:

1) economics (manual is cheaper than auto, at least it used to be in all cases, hence "standard" transmission type) and

2) driver preference

If clutchless manuals become more cost effective than 3 pedal flavors, I can see (1) going away, but (2) is a separate beast IMO.

No, the article focused on why the manual is becoming obsolete due to the better clutchless technology that automakers are developing--as seen in many of the paddle shifters and autostick trannys seen in recent years. It also cited the fact that most younger drivers today don't have a manual in their household and thus never learn to drive one and goes on further to say that manual shifting is becoming hard to find even in driver's ed classes.

[DDS2015]

I prefer driving MT, but I wouldn't get one as a DD. My MT car will be my weekend toy when I can afford one.

[Q4P]

I think the trend will reverse soon as far as costs are concerned. It will be a premium cost to have a manual transmission in a vehicle as that will be quite out of the norm for any manufacturer soon. As the DCT and autos get better, more and more people will switch to them leaving the 6 speed crowd very, very small. Hence, there will be a premium for the 6 speed manual transmission as this will be out of the norm on the assembly line.

In the end, driver preference is most important - if people enjoy stick shift transmissions that's great and that option should be left on the table. I think it will come down to BMW offering manual transmissions as a special order option that will be available however it will come at a premium as most cars available will have either a DCT or Auto transmission.

[BMCoupe_782]

Even though I currently drive an automatic, my previous 2 cars were manual. Regardless of whether the current technology is better/more efficient - there's a certain fun factor in driving a stick. It boils down to so many different variables - including preference - but learning/knowing how to drive a stick should be mandatory for car enthusiasts in IMO. I hope we never see the "demise" of the manual transmission. It would be ashame if the younger generation completely dismissed learning how to operate one.

[hemi to e90]

most interesting thing to me about the manual debate is whats going to happen to the "hero" or "classic car" status in 20-30 years? by then all the kids that cant drive stick will be looking to purchase classic cars, so what then?

anyway, i got a manual now, and even though theres some bliss in rowing for yourself, theres a lot of hell in being stuck in traffic.....

[Gator328i]

I think part of the reason for the demise of stick shifts is that many people simply cannot drive them, but anybody can drive an automatic. If a car dealer had 30 to 40% manuals on his lot, he would greatly restrict the customer base that he can sell those cars to.

[Nalod]

Three of the 4 cars in my fleet are MT's. My 20 year old son and 17 year old daughter both wanted and got MT's. My wife could care less either way so we went Automatic so someone can borrow a car if need be, and I bust my legs playing tennis and once in a while prefer to drive the auto.

Dealers don't put them on lots cuz they don't sell.

Any "Tronic" type auto with paddle shifters is a freaking joke. Its just a button thing for posers playing like F1 video game. DCTs are better for performance but don't have that "feel".

While I sound like the Automatic Tranny grinch I must say the offerings there get better and better. Having a "sport" mode is super and it can shift faster and better than I can but thats not the point. Three pedels are about control of the car.

Also if I had to deal with long traffic I'd not be driving a stick.

Im just not into any "Tronic" with a tourque converter and some saying its "sporty".

I drive a Stick because Audi stopped putting them in their A6 and when My lease was up I got a 530i with MT. I drive BMW because they offer a MT.

I made my kids learn stick as I think it makes them more anticipatory when driving. From their they got to choose what transmission for their modest cars.

For the future? I got 99 thnigs to worry about and MT's are not one of them!

IN other markets they should still sell as they cost less to manufacture and it keeps the price down. IN places where taxes and displacement run hand in hand it matters. What it costs to get cars safety certified here is what will dictate the future. Our morons depict MT cars as differnet than Automatics. BMW does charge a premium by NOT reducing the price of a MT, or in other words offers the STeptronic with no surcharge.

[ES_TRADER]

everyone going "clutchless" and here comes BMW by adding 2 (DCT).....what a contrarian play

[JuppiOne]

twin clutch, wet clutch, paddle shift, DSG, DCT SMG, ABCDE... whats in a word... they are taking over, although many so called paddle shifted auto are simply sluggish old school slush box, but these are going away slowly too, giving way to the newer twin clutch/wet clutch manual auto, like the inexpensive VW DSG, honestly, I like them a lot, you can use it as an auto and cruise around comfortably and smoothly, or when wanted to, can play lewis hamilton and shift a gear in a jiffy, best of both world as i see.

[captainaudio]

Originally Posted by hemi to e90

most interesting thing to me about the manual debate is whats going to happen to the "hero" or "classic car" status in 20-30 years? by then all the kids that cant drive stick will be looking to purchase classic cars, so what then?

They will lean how to drive a manual. It ain't rocket science.

CA

[captainaudio]

Most modern torque converter ATs (including the BMW Steptronic) lock up the torque converter with a clutch once the car is in motion (about 5 MPH). It stays out of the picture until the car comes almost to a stop. The "Wet Clutch" ATs shift exactly the same way as the torque converter ATs (and in many cases are the identical tranmission) but the torque converter is replaced by a wet clutch pack. The fastest of these transmissions, like the one in the Lexus ISF, can execute a shift in 100ms, and the ISF uses a torque converter. The wet clutch pack will not make the car shift faster as that is handled by different clucthes on the planetary gear sets. A torque converter is actually a very good device for smooth starts and if it is locked up once the car is in motion there is no loss of efficiency since the engine is directly coupled to the drive wheels.

CA

[ctuna]

Are they cheap enough now to compete with the automatics.
The biggest complaint I have against automatics is the lack of feel
and control . With a manual you can use the the throttle to control
traction and handling to a greater extent.
I haven't driven an SMG if it responds like a manual I would probably like it.
I have driven a CVT interesting but there is a definite lag while it decides
what to do.

[JuppiOne]

Originally Posted by captainaudio

Most modern torque converter ATs (including the BMW Steptronic) lock up the torque converter with a clutch once the car is in motion (about 5 MPH). It stays out of the picture until the car comes almost to a stop. The "Wet Clutch" ATs shift exactly the same way as the torque converter ATs (and in many cases are the identical tranmission) but the torque converter is replaced by a wet clutch pack. The fastest of these transmissions, like the one in the Lexus ISF, can execute a shift in 100ms. A torque converter is actually a very good device for smooth starts and if it is locked up once the car is in motion there is no loss of efficiency since the engine is directly coupled to the drive wheels.


CA

well said

[Bumer]

I think WSJ will become "obsolete" before MT does.

[Wrngway]

Originally Posted by Gator328i

I can't think of anything coming out of the Big-Three that would be equipped with a manual.

Well, for starters there's Corvette, Camaro, and Mustang. I doubt those would ever go away.

On just the GM side, I believe the new Buick Regal also sports a manual tranny. Likely the first in decades. The upcoming Buick Verano will also get one. There's also the Cruze to include the Eco version, the CTS Sedan, Coupe, and V series wagon. I know the Challenger also offers one. As far as Ford goes, I'd be surprised if you couldn't get one on Fiesta or Focus.

Manual transmissions are still out there. If the DCT replaces anything, I'd like to see it replace traditional automatics.

[Foxcolt]

I don't think anyone can argue that it isn't a dying trend. In the end it's about what puts more cars out in the hands of consumers and sad to say but I believe we can all agree that it's automatics.

Companies with strong enthusiast fanbases or cars that are known for having a strong following will cater to their demographic and continue to offer standard transmissions. Meanwhile I'm sure they'll be pushing for DCT and their equivalents as better options as it logically makes them more money to sell higher end optional equipment on cars.

Eventually the costs to manufacture dual clutch and other types of "Clutchless" manual transmissions will rival the cost of standard transmissions and eventually they'll be phased out.

At least that's my view on how things are going to happen. In the early 80's most Rally cars were standard manuals, eventually they went to sequential gearboxes and now are all Dual Clutch, electronic controlled etc etc. Car production has always loosely followed the trends in the racing world and I don't see this one as being any different.

just my 2c