April 09 Sales: 1 series only down 6% 3 series down 47%

[bmwzone]

1 Series April 2008 1,125 vs April 2009 1,057
3 Series April 2008 11,401 vs Aprile 2009 6,013

What was 11-1 is now 6-1.

[Robert]

If high gas price returns 1 series may be BMW's bread and butter in the coming years, and remember we were Year 1 of the 1. =)

[kb2dhg]

This car is not yet known, once the public gets to know this little jewel, BMW will be swamped with orders...

[jkp1187]

Originally Posted by Robert

If high gas price returns 1 series may be BMW's bread and butter in the coming years, and remember we were Year 1 of the 1. =)

123d: the gearhead's answer to high fuel prices.

[lib]

So in other words they're essentially selling the 1-series as fast as they can. (In '08 they beat their target figure by ~20%).

[vasracer]

that's funny, because there are five sitting in the lot at santa monica bmw for the last 3 weeks or so...

[lib]

Originally Posted by vasracer

that's funny, because there are five sitting in the lot at santa monica bmw for the last 3 weeks or so...

There's always a few cases like that. People were claiming the same thing throughout '08 yet by the end of the year they ended up beating their estimates by a decent margin.

[dmboone25]

This is actaully bad news for BMW, I would think. The extra 1ers they sell are just icing on the cake--but the 3 is what the company lives and dies by.

A sustained loss of 3 series sales, at the hands of the 1, the economy, or whatever else, is indeed a very bad thing for BMW.....

[Garduna]

Originally Posted by dmboone25

This is actaully bad news for BMW, I would think. The extra 1ers they sell are just icing on the cake--but the 3 is what the company lives and dies by.

A sustained loss of 3 series sales, at the hands of the 1, the economy, or whatever else, is indeed a very bad thing for BMW.....

very true, bmw needs those 3series sales. Isn't the 3 their overall highest percentage in profit?

[JB135i]

Originally Posted by lib

There's always a few cases like that. People were claiming the same thing throughout '08 yet by the end of the year they ended up beating their estimates by a decent margin.

Umm, they are internal estimates aren't they, numbers like that are basically meaningless. Would you really expect them to say they sold 20% less than they had hoped to sell?! Of course the launch of a new car line (USA) is going to be fantastic/wonderful/better than expected.

The 1 series is also not a commodity type car, it has (had) a very limited market. A market that will tend not to fluctuate much overall. Sales figures for a relatively low volume product of any type is not a good indicator of overall strength of a product as the sample size is inherantly low.

[cagekicker]

that's news to me.

[///M1]

Question is also how did production respond. Is the 3-series capacity being trimmed at the factory or is inventory bulging given the same speed of production. I think the 1- has a stable customer base/interest group so wouldn't expect it to fluctuate all that much. Every competitor out there is targetting the 3-, so with a new Benz, Lexus, Audi, Infiniti, etc. any potential customer 'defection' will hurt it. What do the above brands have as a 1-series rival here in the US. Nothing much really...

[ptack]

BMW was one of the first manufacturers to cut back production last year so they are not sitting on vast acres of unsold cars (like Toyota was at one point). The 3 series is the breadwinner for BMW accounting for a huge chunk of the revenue. The fact that the sales of the 1 coupes are doing well clearly validates BMW's decision to launch them, but the volume is too small to make even a dent in lost 3 sales. That said, BMW appears to be going full speed into 1-world for the US market as quickly as it can. Too bad the next step is the X1 instead of new hatches, but those will come. I bet total US 1 series sales may someday approach 3 sales.

[jeremyc74]

I'd be willing to bet that the major reason the 3 Series sales have taken such a huge hit is the lack of good lease deals. BMW took a huge loss on lease returns when the economy tanked, and tightened their belt accordingly. Some of the 3 Series lease offers a few years ago were just dirt cheap.

The 1 Series has a narrower appeal, but people who want it really want it. I'm sure there are a lot of people who wanted a 1 that decided to wait because of the economic conditions, but at the same time a lot of people who wanted a 3 Series and couldn't quite swing the payments probabaly dropped down to the 1 instead.

[MOCKBA]

It is interesting to see what's going on with competitors, like C class, IS, G and A4. If competitors have the same loss, then BMW is fine, if competitors have gain, then something wrong with BMW. Since there is no direct competitor to 1ser, its sales look fine.

[imported_mega]

where did you find the sales numbers?

[///M1]

What should not be discounted is the amount of 'cannibalization' that 1-series may cause. Especially in this economy, there are people that opted for the 1- when they would have preferred to go for the 3- had their finances been a bit better. So the question is how much of the decrease in 3-series sales is because of 'transitions' to the 1-series (probably not a huge number, but I am sure some of this was observed).

[BlueC]

May is a different story:

http://www.mwerks.com/artman2/publis...09_Sales.shtml

[Add1ct]

Originally Posted by jkp1187

123d: the gearhead's answer to high fuel prices.

YES! I am so hoping that they bring the 123d here in the next year so I can do an ED on one at the end of my lease

[Angry3]

Interesting, but the numbers are deceptive. In April '08 the supply chain was just getting these cars into people's hands, which is why the May '08 numbers are so much higher and the sales "drop" is larger.

The 1, at ~1K units a month is right about where BMW thought it would be. It's not a huge hit, and it's not a sales flop. It's a niche car that's profitable for them to sell here since it was already on the market overseas. I agree the drop in 3 sales in incredible, but as others have said it was unavoidable given the economy and BMWs move away from cheap lease terms. BMW has decided to follow a "pull" sales strategy, sell fewer units and keep their margins and reputation intact. It's a good news/bad news deal for us, good because it keeps the cars special and preserves resale value to a degree, bad because the days of leasing a well equipped BMW for $400 a month nothing up front are long gone.

[jeremyc74]

Originally Posted by Angry3

Interesting, but the numbers are deceptive. In April '08 the supply chain was just getting these cars into people's hands, which is why the May '08 numbers are so much higher and the sales "drop" is larger.

The 1, at ~1K units a month is right about where BMW thought it would be. It's not a huge hit, and it's not a sales flop. It's a niche car that's profitable for them to sell here since it was already on the market overseas. I agree the drop in 3 sales in incredible, but as others have said it was unavoidable given the economy and BMWs move away from cheap lease terms. BMW has decided to follow a "pull" sales strategy, sell fewer units and keep their margins and reputation intact. It's a good news/bad news deal for us, good because it keeps the cars special and preserves resale value to a degree, bad because the days of leasing a well equipped BMW for $400 a month nothing up front are long gone.

You're right about May '08 numbers, but it's still interesting that the 1 is still hitting it's targets, while the 3 Series is missing them by a large margin.

[Angry3]

Originally Posted by jeremyc74

You're right about May '08 numbers, but it's still interesting that the 1 is still hitting it's targets, while the 3 Series is missing them by a large margin.

I think that's mostly because the sales targets for the one were and continue to be very modest, while the 3 series appears to be wilting on the vine because of the banner sales years it's had recently. But a lot of that was an illusion with the inflated lease terms. Leasing was what made the E90/92s affordable for a broad base of buyers, and even with the reduced wholesale values it provides the ready supply of cars that go into the CPO pipeline at dealers to be prettied up and sold at margins that make selling new BMWs look like nothing but a huge waste of time.

BMWs new car numbers are in the crapper generally, but the dealer network could hardly care less. CPO cars and service are where the loot is made these days, and that business is steaming along nicely. It will be interesting to see what happens to the CPO market 1 to 3 years out with this big pullback on production and sales.